NEW YORK, NY — The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.76% last week, the highest level in 15 months, up from 6.71% the week before. That move adds fresh pressure to buyers already watching financing costs closely.
But a new historical analysis from AD Mortgage suggests that waiting for rates to improve does not always lead to the better financial outcome. In 61% of the scenarios studied across all 50 states and Washington, D.C., buying right away produced the lower total purchase and financing cost.
Why the study says timing the market often fails
AD Mortgage examined home prices, mortgage rates, and median household income in every state plus Washington, D.C., using data from 2000 through 2022. The company compared whether buyers came out ahead by purchasing immediately or by waiting two years while saving more money.
The key measure was simple: whichever path produced the lower overall cost was treated as the better outcome. Under that test, immediate buying won more often than not, showing that mortgage rates alone do not tell the whole story. Home-price growth, income changes, and the pace of savings also matter.
That point matters because many buyers focus on only one variable and assume lower rates will automatically mean a better deal. The analysis argues that the broader market picture can overwhelm the benefit of a lower interest rate.
Florida and California showed the strongest buy now advantage
Some states leaned much more strongly toward buying sooner. Florida and California posted the highest immediate-buying advantages, with the lower-cost outcome showing up in 74% of scenarios in each state.
AD Mortgage linked that pattern to long-term home-price growth in those markets. When prices rise steadily, the cost of waiting can outweigh any savings that might come from a future drop in mortgage rates.
At the other end of the study, West Virginia had the lowest buy-now advantage at 39%. It was one of only two states where buying immediately came out ahead in fewer than half of the scenarios reviewed.
When waiting actually helped buyers
The study does not say waiting never pays off. It found a clear period when delaying a purchase was often the better move: from 2007 to 2010, when home prices were falling sharply.
During that stretch, buying immediately was the advantageous choice in 0% of scenarios. Falling prices changed the math enough that buyers who waited generally had the edge.
Even so, the company said those years were the exception rather than the rule across the full 23-year span. The broader data still favored buying when a household was ready and a deal worked on the numbers.
Rates changed, but prices and income also shaped the outcome
AD Mortgage also pointed to the early 2000s as another example of why rate declines do not guarantee a better result. From 2000 to 2002, the average 30-year fixed rate fell from 8.05% to 6.54%.
Even with that improvement in financing, buying immediately in 2000 still produced a better financial result in 34% of states compared with waiting until 2002. The company said that is because local home prices, income growth, and savings accumulation can move in different directions at the same time.
That mix can change the final cost more than a lower rate alone. For buyers, the study suggests that affordability has to be judged by the whole picture, not by one headline number.
Why waiting for lower rates can create more competition
Real estate agent Nick Booth of Salt Lake City said many shoppers assume conditions will keep improving if they just hold off long enough. He said buyers often expect prices to fall, rates to drop, and competition to disappear at the same time.
In practice, lower mortgage rates can pull more buyers back into the market and push demand higher. That added competition can lift home prices, offsetting part of the savings from cheaper borrowing.
Booth pointed to the COVID-19 housing boom as a recent example. According to Realtor.com analysis, home prices at the end of 2020 were about 7.6% higher than at the end of 2019 after historically low rates drew in a flood of buyers.
What buyers can do instead of trying to predict the market
Max Slyusarchuk, chief executive of AD Mortgage, said his advice is not to wait if the numbers already make sense for a buyer’s household. He said market prediction is never a guarantee, and the study backs up that warning.
The practical takeaway is to focus on readiness rather than perfect timing. If a buyer can afford a home now, the purchase price is fixed at closing, while a future refinance can potentially improve the loan rate later.
Booth made the same point more bluntly, saying the best time to buy is the moment a household can comfortably do it. In his view, the price paid for the home matters more than chasing a rate that may or may not arrive.
More on what homes, rents and new builds are doing near you, on RHS Commoner.
