PHOENIX, AZ — Rising mortgage rates in September pushed an already stalled Phoenix-area housing market even deeper into a freeze, according to a new Phoenix Realtors report. Across the Valley, the median home sold for $475,000, while sales slipped 5% from the same month last year.
Fresh supply was limited too. New listings fell nearly 4%, and pending sales — a close look at what may close next — dropped 40%, the sharpest sign that buyers were pulling back. The data point to a market where homes are still changing hands, but far fewer deals are getting started.
That pattern showed up across most of the region, with only one city standing out as a clear exception.
Phoenix saw lower prices and fewer deals as new listings barely grew
In Phoenix itself, the median home price came in at $485,000, down from more than $500,000 a year earlier. That lower price did not translate into a stronger sales environment. Closed sales fell 5%, matching the broader regional decline.
New listings in the city rose 2%, which suggests some sellers were still testing the market even as demand softened. But pending sales fell 37%, showing that buyers were signing fewer contracts than they were a year ago.
The combination of softer pricing, slightly more inventory coming on and fewer deals moving forward is a sign of a market that is adjusting, but not recovering. For many households, borrowing costs remain the main obstacle.
Scottsdale was the one Valley market still showing real momentum
Scottsdale was the only city in the report where the market was clearly heating up. Sales increased 2%, and new listings rose 3%, giving the upscale market a rare bit of life in an otherwise sluggish Valley.
The median price climbed from $1.2 million to $1.25 million. At the top end of the market, mortgage rates often matter less because buyers are more likely to use cash or have stronger financing options.
That dynamic helps explain why Scottsdale moved differently from much of the region. While many neighborhoods were stuck with fewer contract signings, the city’s higher-priced homes kept attracting interest.
Mesa, Gilbert and Surprise all posted steep drops in pending sales
Mesa, the Valley’s second most populous city, reported a median price of $488,000. Sales were down, and pending sales fell 43%, showing a sharp slowdown in forward-looking activity.
Gilbert was even weaker on the contract side. The city was priced at nearly $600,000, but closed sales fell 13% even as new listings climbed 10%, suggesting sellers were still putting homes on the market. Pending sales plunged 45%, the largest drop in the report.
In Surprise, prices held flat compared with last September and remained below the Valley median. Even so, closings fell 9% and pending sales dropped 34%, reinforcing the broader picture of a market struggling to regain traction.
Avondale stayed the least expensive city in the report but still lost buyers
Avondale had the lowest median home price in the Phoenix-area roundup at $419,000, but affordability alone was not enough to keep the market moving. Closed sales fell 17%, and pending sales dropped 35%.
New listings edged up slightly, which means some sellers were still willing to bring homes to market despite weak demand. But the rise was not enough to offset the drop in buyer activity.
That makes Avondale another example of the same regional pattern: homes are available, prices are not rising everywhere, and yet financing costs are keeping a lot of would-be buyers from committing.
The Valley's housing slowdown reflects how rates are shaping behavior
The Phoenix Realtors data suggest mortgage rates are still steering the housing market more than prices alone. Even where sellers lowered expectations, buyers did not rush back in, and pending sales fell sharply across nearly every city in the report.
That matters because pending sales often hint at what closing numbers will look like in the weeks ahead. When that number drops this far, it usually means the pipeline of future deals is thinning.
For the Valley overall, the September numbers point to a market that is not collapsing, but is clearly stuck. Sellers are listing homes, prices are moving unevenly by neighborhood, and only the highest-end market appears to have enough insulation to keep growing.
What the September numbers say about buyers, sellers and the months ahead
For buyers, the data may offer some negotiating leverage in parts of the Valley, especially where sales are falling and listings are rising. But the numbers also show that lower prices have not been enough to overpower higher borrowing costs.
For sellers, the message is tougher. Homes can still move, but the report shows that many markets are sitting with fewer contracts and weaker demand than a year ago. That can mean longer waits and more pressure to price carefully.
September’s report leaves the Valley in a familiar position: not frozen solid, but far from a healthy spring-like market. Unless mortgage rates ease, the numbers suggest many neighborhoods will keep moving slowly rather than breaking out of the current stall.
More on what homes, rents and new builds are doing near you, on RHS Commoner.
