NEW YORK, NY — Aging homeowners are expected to release 13.9 million homes into the market over the next decade, according to a Realtor.com analysis published Monday. The forecast points to a sizable wave of turnover as baby boomers and Silent Generation owners age, move, consolidate households or leave homeownership altogether.
Even with that increase, the expected change is unlikely to solve the nation’s housing shortage on its own. Realtor.com says the country still faces a shortfall of about 4 million homes, and most of the supply coming from older owners is expected to be in family-sized or larger properties rather than the smaller homes many first-time buyers need.
Older owners are projected to release far more homes than in the last decade
The analysis says homes owned by boomers and the Silent Generation will fall from an estimated 36.7 million in 2026 to 22.8 million in 2036. That drop of 13.9 million homes works out to about 1.39 million homes a year over the period.
Realtor.com compares that with roughly 8 million homes released by older households during the previous decade. The new forecast would amount to 5.9 million more homes and a 74% increase in turnover from boomer and Silent Generation homeowners versus the prior 10 years.
The annual pace is also expected to rise over time, from about 1.27 million homes in 2027 to 1.52 million by 2036. Realtor.com says that means the transition builds gradually instead of arriving all at once.
Starter homes make up a small share of the coming supply
For buyers hoping for smaller, more affordable homes, the numbers are less encouraging. Realtor.com projects only 0.38 million starter homes with zero to two bedrooms will be released over the next 10 years. That is about 38,000 a year and just 3.2% of current annual listings on the site.
By contrast, 9.9 million family homes with three to four bedrooms are expected to turn over, or 71.2% of the total. Another 3.6 million large homes with five or more bedrooms are projected to change hands, equal to about a quarter of the total forecast.
Realtor.com says older owners hold an estimated 1.33 million starter homes, about 51.3% of that segment. Even so, they are expected to release less than one-third of those units over the forecast period.
Free-and-clear ownership helps many smaller homeowners stay put
The reason starter-home turnover is so limited comes down in part to financing. Realtor.com says nearly three-quarters of owners ages 70 to 79 who live in starter homes own them free and clear. That compares with 65.1% of owners of family-sized homes and 58.9% of owners of large homes.
Without a mortgage payment hanging over them, many older homeowners in smaller properties have less financial pressure to sell. That makes the entry-level market tighter even while the overall number of homes shifting hands rises.
For lenders and agents focused on first-time buyers, the finding suggests continued strain at the lower end of the market, especially in metros where affordable stock is already scarce. The expected turnover may create supply elsewhere, but not enough in the smallest homes to quickly loosen entry-level conditions.
Most of the lift is expected in midrange and large homes
The forecast is more favorable for households looking to move up. Realtor.com says family homes will contribute nearly 1 million units a year to the pool of potential inventory, and if even half of those homes are listed for sale, family-home listings could rise about 12.3% from recent levels.
Large homes could have an even bigger relative effect. The projected 360,000 large homes released each year equals about two-thirds of recent large-home listings, or roughly one-third if only half reach the market. That could give trade-up buyers and growing families more options over time.
Realtor.com says the larger homes entering the market may also create indirect relief in starter homes, as existing owners move up and free smaller properties behind them. For brokerages, that suggests more business may come from midsized and upper-tier listings than from entry-level inventory.
Household growth is slowing, but price effects may be uneven
The forecast arrives as U.S. household formation slows. Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies projects household growth of about 859,000 a year over the next decade, below the 1.2 million annual average since 2000. That slower demand could add some downward pressure on prices as more older owners release homes.
Still, Realtor.com and other researchers expect the effect to be gradual and uneven. The National Association of Home Builders has found that turnover from older households is happening fastest in the Rust Belt and Midwest, not in high-cost coastal markets where affordability is already a major issue.
That pattern suggests the added supply will likely soften conditions in some local markets and in certain home-size segments, rather than causing a broad national price correction. Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu said the key question is not whether homes are coming, but which homes, where they are located and how many buyers will be waiting.
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